Chernobly radioactive plume modelling chart

After the Chernobyl nuclear incident a cloud of radioactive material was transported high into the atmosphere. Plume modelling was used to track how this material was moved by the winds and where it may be deposited due to rainfall. On this chart you can see how the plume moved over time from the initial date of the 26 April through to the 5 May 1986. Initially the plume moved southwards but as the winds changed it began to move towards to the UK where rainfall caused radioactive materials to be deposited on the high grounds of Wales and western Scotland. It would be decades before these soils were no longer contaminated.

The height of the Cold War era also saw many concerns about the impact of nuclear war and the possibility of a Nuclear Winter. The Met Office carried out some research into the potential impacts of nuclear warfare on the weather but soon concerns moved to a real event – the Chernobyl nuclear reactor explosion on 26 April 1986. After initial denials that the explosion had taken place radioactive material was discovered in Sweden on 28 April and official details were finally released. On the 29th the Central Forecasting Office at Bracknell started to calculate trajectories in order to estimate when and where the plume might cross the British Isles. Working with a team of specialists in atmospheric dispersion the Office discovered that the plume would indeed cross the British Isles and media communication was put in place to warn a range of communities about the expected deposition via rainfall and dry deposition. As a result of Chernobyl and the accuracy of the subsequent dispersion forecasts the Meteorological Office was designated lead agency in the development of a model to forecast atmospheric dispersion and deposition following any future nuclear incident. The resulting NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) model has since been applied to an ever growing range of atmospheric transportation and dispersion problems including greenhouse gases, air quality forecasting, and emergency response to events such as nuclear incidents (Fukushima, 2011); volcanic eruptions (Eyjafjallajökull, 2010), industrial fires and animal diseases such as Foot and Mouth and Bluetongue.